Embracing

Uncertainty

Macroeconomic analysis is imperfect. Even with well-specified models, future shocks will necessarily cause projections to deviate from their outcome. Failure to account for different sources of uncertainty – and their pattern of transmission – can result in poor decision-making.

At Numera Analytics, our goal is to help clients understand sources of growth, quantify downside risks, and anticipate shifts in the global economy. Unlike conventional economists and strategists, we rely on sophisticated probability forecasting techniques to evaluate less likely, yet economically meaningful, scenarios. The approach is instrumental for investment strategy, as it helps identify the many risks surrounding future outcomes.

Request Trial

Our Services

By subscribing to our Macro Research service, you gain access to a comprehensive set of reports and analytical tools to help you anticipate changes in the global economy and financial markets. Numera Macro clients receive 100+ reports per year, and have access to hundreds of probability forecasts, charts and proprietary indicators.
Your annual subscription includes the following services:

  • Global Macro Monitor
    A monthly strategy report analyzing global economic and policy developments, and their implications for top-down investment strategy. Charts available for download. Sample
  • Global Investment Calls  
    A supplement to the Global Macro Monitor, this monthly chart pack features our latest investment calls and probability forecasts on global (DM + EM) stocks and bonds, foreign exchange and commodity market benchmarks, as well as overall asset allocaiton. Charts and data available for download. Sample
  • US Macro Monitor
    A monthly strategy report analyzing US economic and policy developments, and their implications for US equity and bond investments. Charts available for download. Sample
  • US Investment Calls
    A supplement to the US Macro Monitor, this monthly chart pack features our latest investment views and probability forecasts on the US stock market and its eight largest sectors, sovereign and corporate bonds and overall asset allocation. Charts and data available for download. Sample
  • Thematic Research
    Regular in-depth research features exploring important economic and financial themes, and their relevance for investment and corporate strategy. Sample
  • Library and database
    Access past research and download the probability forecasts, key risk metrics and proprietary indicators featured in our monthly reports.
  • Global Macro Perspectives
    Macro Perspectives is the only report in the world to offer monthly point and probability forecasts for all major developed and emerging economies. The report features updated three-year projections, in-depth commentary and key risk metrics on growth, inflation and exchange rates. Sample
  • Commodity Outlook
    Monthly update on our latest commodity views, offering a ‘deep dive’ on the factors driving recent and future price dynamics. Special quarterly features on crude oil, gold and industrial metals (base metals + iron ore). Sample
  • Data trackers 
    A set of high frequency reports offering a timely take on the state of the world economy. Our proprietary indicators lead competing global data releases by two weeks to one month.
    Global Manufacturing Sample
    Global Industrial Production Sample
    Global Retail Trade Sample
  • Daily Chart
    Concise and timely charts and commentary on significant market events.
  • Webinars and presentations
    Regular presentations discussing changes to the economic outlook, and updates to our global and US equity and FICC views.
  • Custom research
    Tailored economic and quantitative research studies for investment and corporate strategy. Additional fees apply.

Our Methodology

Our research spectrum illustrates Numera's approach to macroeconomic analysis. While primarily empirical, our tried and tested models incorporate theoretical and qualitative insights should these prove useful in prediction. The procedure ensures transparency and flexibility, with model choice differing widely across concepts depending on their forecasting performance.

Become a client

Whether you're looking for an individual report or require extensive market research and quantitative analysis, we offer you the flexibility to become a client under your terms.

Contact us